The high-risk group leaves the risk population first therefore, as time goes by, the share of the low-risk group increases, and the hazard of divorce for the population will approach their (low) risk levels (for details, see Online Resource 1). Omitting important covariates from the analysis or unobserved heterogeneity may significantly distort the true shape of the baseline risk: the estimates on the risk of divorce over marriage duration would be downwardly biased. Similarly, the sample may include individuals who are less prone to divorce because of traditional value beliefs or because they tend to avoid changes in their lives. For example, the sample may contain individuals who are prone to divorce because of liberal values or because they are ambitious and never satisfied with their current life situation. However, it is likely that some important characteristics of spouses have not been measured and included in the analysis this is particularly the case with personality traits of spouses, their values, and their long-term plans. Recent studies reporting the rising-falling pattern of divorce over the marriage duration have controlled for a set of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of spouses. It is well-known that the baseline risk in hazard models is sensitive to model specification (Galler and Poetter 1990 Hoem 1990 Vaupel et al. If the mutual adaptation is successful, a longer period of stability follows in the marital relationship (Diekmann and Mitter 1984 Kurdek 1999 Levinger 1983 Sternberg 1986).Īlthough the premise of the seven-year itch is convincing, perhaps the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk is simply produced by misspecification of longitudinal models on divorce and separation. Experiences are cumulated over time through a mutual learning process, and the couple determines whether staying together makes sense. This is a period when spouses encourage some behaviors of their partners and discourage others at the same time, they try to adapt to those behaviors and characteristics of their partners that cannot be easily changed. Classical psychological literature and public discourse consider this pattern consistent with the notion of a “seven-year itch.” Most married couples experience a gradual but steady decline in marital quality after the first year of marriage, suggesting that the short honeymoon period of passion is followed by everyday routine, during which the differences between spouses’ attitudes, values, and behavior become visible and subject to discussion and arguing. The reason for the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk over the marriage duration, however, has not been discussed much in demographic and sociological studies. Various studies on industrialized countries have found this pattern (Andersson 1995 Diekmann and Engelhardt 1999 Hoem and Hoem 1992 Jalovaara 2013 Kiernan 1999 Kulu and Boyle 2010 Lyngstad 2011 Rootalu 2010 Schoen 1975 Thornton and Rodgers 1987). Most studies show that the risk of separation is low during the first months of a marriage it then increases, reaches a maximum, and thereafter begins to decrease. An ingredient of longitudinal models on divorce is the marriage duration. The inclusion of unobserved heterogeneity in the model leads to some changes in the shape of the baseline risk however, the rising-falling pattern of the divorce risk persists.ĭivorce, Marriage, Multilevel hazard models, Finland IntroductionĪn extensive amount of multidisciplinary literature exists on the trends and patterns of divorce and separation in industrialized countries (for recent reviews, see Amato 2010 Cherlin 2010 Lyngstad and Jalovaara 2010). This pattern persists when I control for the sociodemographic characteristics of women and their partners. Using register data from Finland and applying multilevel hazard models, the analysis supports the rising-falling pattern of divorce by marriage duration: the risk of marital dissolution increases, reaches its peak, and then gradually declines. The aim of this study is to investigate the causes of the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk. Some researchers consider this pattern consistent with the notion of a “seven-year itch,” while others argue that the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk is a consequence of misspecification of longitudinal models because of omitted covariates or unobserved heterogeneity. Previous studies have shown that the risk of divorce is low during the first months of marriage it then increases, reaches a maximum, and thereafter begins to decline.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |